Just a few months ago, Angela Merkel seemed doomed to lose the upcoming federal elections in Germany on September 24. Now, the woman who has been chancellor since 2005 looks certain to win a fourth term. There are two main reasons for this miraculous turnaround. First, Merkel changed her attitude towards migrants flowing into Germany. Her supporters (and her allies from Bavaria's CSU) had found her much too welcoming. Second, her main rival, Social Democrat Martin Schulz, has seen his campaign lose momentum after a promising start. Other factors are also at play: the waning strength of the far right after it won support from a number of CDU voters, strong growth in the German economy and even the new "pro-Merkel" French president. As things stand, only a catastrophe could stop Merkel from winning office again.